In LOPA studies, what role does historical incident data serve?

In Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA), historical incident data is primarily utilized to estimate the frequency of initiating events. This is crucial for creating a reliable risk assessment, as understanding how often certain incidents have occurred in the past enables practitioners to anticipate the likelihood of similar events happening in the future. By analyzing this data, risk assessors can identify trends and patterns that inform the probability of potential hazards, thereby allowing for a more comprehensive evaluation of risk.

While it may seem that other roles for historical incident data, such as evaluating the effectiveness of safety measures or predicting administrative changes, are relevant, they do not directly contribute to the core focus of LOPA, which is understanding the frequency of risks that need to be mitigated through Layer of Protection strategies.